Why the Yeddyurappa govt will not fall

One of the pitfalls of being in the newspaper business is the spot analyses that you are expected to dish out. Nobody lets you hedge your bets. The questions have to be answered in monosyllables: “Did Mr X accept that Rs 150 crore?” or “Are Ms Y and Mr Z having an affair?” This past week, I have been bombarded with just one question, from my sabziwallah to my neighbour: “Will this government fall?” So here is my take on the situation in Karnataka today.
Anybody looking for a sharp spot analysis need not read a column. Instead, look at a picture that The New Indian Express published last Saturday: Mr Y looking into the camera shaking a certain K Rosaiah’s hand. Rosaiah, an unwilling Andhra Chief Minister, seems to be firmly in the saddle now. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party has been pushing him to stop mining activities by Obalapuram Mining Company, a firm owned by Gali Janardhan Reddy, the man in the thick of the battle with B S Yeddyurappa. Rosaiah, the YSR loyalist, transferred Y Srilakshmi, Secretary (mines), because she was considered too close to the mining barons of Karnataka.
The Reddy Brothers of Bellary were said to be close to Y S Rajashekhara Reddy. After his tragic death, efforts were under way to install his son, Jaganmohan Reddy, as the CM. But the Congress high command (what the hell, let’s name names: Rahul Gandhi) wanted him in New Delhi. So, that option is ruled out. And it’s hurting the Reddy Brothers badly.
Mr Y on the other hand is going from strength to strength. After having delivered 19 MPs to the BJP’s kitty, he rules one of the handful of states that the saffron party has. And he looks pretty confident too: After transferring the Gadag DC and imposing a toll on mining trucks, he struck at the heart of the mining barons by transferring officials in Bellary. Do you think any CM would do that if he was not sure about his own money-spinning powers, given that elections today are won solely on financial muscle? Arun Jaitley is backing Mr Y and Sushma Swaraj, the godmother of the Bellary Brothers, has too many problems of her own.
The BJP high command thus does not have too many options. It knows that any change in the leadership now will have devastating effect on its poll prospects.
Which brings us to the fringe players in Karnataka: the Congress and the JD(S). The former is a no-man show and the latter a one-man show. Besides, in this hour of crisis -- villages have to be shifted, houses have to be built, succour has to be provided, money has to be raised -- it is better to sit back and criticize than to step in and execute.
And the role of the Governor? H R Bharadwaj is a veteran of politics and constitutional law. He knows that he does not need to step in right now.
I’ve tried to hedge my bets when answering the question. But if you still want an answer to the question “will this government fall” in monosyllables: No.